from http://inflation.us/unemploymentdeclineillusion.html
December 7, 2009
Unemployment Decline An Illusion, Financial System Collapse Ahead
On Friday it was announced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that the U.S. unemployment rate in November declined from 10.2% to 10%. While the mainstream media would like you to believe we have seen a peak in unemployment and the worst of the economic crisis is behind us, we know that this dip in the unemployment number is phony and the recession is only beginning.
Although the unemployment number dipped in November, we still lost 11,000 nonfarm jobs. Unemployment fell by 0.2% only because the civilian labor force shrunk in November by 98,000 people. This means more people are becoming discouraged and giving up looking for jobs. When you combine both short and long-term discouraged workers who aren’t included in the labor force along with those who are underemployed with part-time jobs, real unemployment in the U.S. today is nearly 22%.
The most important area of employment to look at is manufacturing jobs. Increasing manufacturing is the only way for our country to truly recover and build real wealth, because it will allow us to cut down on inflation by exporting real products instead of the money we print. Unfortunately, the U.S. lost 41,000 manufacturing jobs in November and has lost 2.1 million manufacturing jobs over the last two years.
The main areas of increasing employment in November were health care and government jobs, which are non-productive jobs that are increasing global imbalances. These jobs are not being created due to a strengthening economy, they are being created due to our artificial, temporary and destructive stimulus. They are forcing our country to get deeper into debt and create massive inflation.
Those who receive a paycheck for a non-productive health care or government job, compete against all Americans for the purchasing of consumer goods, without an increase in the supply of goods. This means after excess inventories of goods are done being worked off, prices of all the goods we consume will increase at an astronomical rate that is unimaginable to most Americans today.
Many Americans with jobs are not concerned about inflation because they believe if the prices of goods go up, so will their wages and everything will balance out. They don’t understand our standard of living in America has already been declining for over a decade. Sure, we have plasma TV’s, cell phones and the Internet today, but our lives are becoming harder to live and it is becoming more difficult for the middle class to survive.
Twenty years ago, a father with an average job was able to support an entire family of four or five on one income. Today, both parents need to work, and they are still unable to support their family without getting deeply into debt with credit cards, mortgages, auto loans, and college loans. Less families today have health insurance. Wages have not kept pace with inflation, all we have seen is an increase in debt to meet some of the demand from inflation.
With the babyboomers beginning to retire, the decline in our standard of living is about to dreadfully accelerate. The average American peaks in spending at around 46 years old and the last babyboomer will turn 46 in 2010. Therefore, a major drop-off in consumer spending is coming. But more importantly, beginning this next decade, 1.5 to 2 million Americans will apply for Social Security every year until 2026, compared to only 500,000 per year during the last decade. Tax receipts are about to fall off a cliff, at the same time as government entitlement spending for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid go through the roof.
Many people have been asking us on NIAnswers, if we see massive inflation and gold prices go through the roof like we predict, wouldn’t that be good for the U.S. because we have the largest gold reserves at 8,133.5 tonnes? Well, at the current gold price, our gold reserves are worth approximately $300 billion. Our budget deficit this year alone was $1.6 trillion. If we had to pay back our $12 trillion national debt using only the gold in our vaults, it would require a $45,889.44 per ounce gold price. But once you factor in our $55 to $100 trillion in unfunded liabilities for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, our gold reserves will not put a dent in saving our country from the financial system collapse that lies ahead.
Posted in Political News, The Economy | Tagged economy, employment, jobs, unemployment | Leave a Comment »
by Allan Seccombe
November 13, 2009
ADVANCES in technology, increasing focus on reducing human interaction with bacteria, and tracking goods and people are all good news for silver and the price of the industrial metal, which has lagged for so long, says Jessica Cross, CEO of VM Group.
Long regarded as the poor cousin of gold, the metal, which is mainly used in industrial applications as well as to make jewelry, has bright prospects, with off take in a spectrum of new products put at just below 350 million ounces by 2020 (see graph below), Cross argued in a presentation at the LBMA Conference earlier this month.
The silver price is currently trading around $17.30/oz, (TP Note: at today’s pricing 11/23/09, make that $18.60 ± ) a level that it traded around in the first half of 2008 when it broke up to just shy of $21. These two spikes were unparalleled, certainly since 1985, with the metal touching slightly north of $8.50 just once since then.
Looking at the history of the silver market, Cross said about two thirds of the mined metal is a by-product of other minerals like copper, gold and lead, making it difficult to determine a price at which silver production would fall in a natural supply and demand scenario. Being a by-product, the metal will come onto the market almost regardless what the price is for it.
One of the major users of silver, the photographic film sector, is being particularly hard hit as consumers turn to digital cameras. A graph of silver demand by the sector shows a steady decline since a peak above 200 million ounces in the early 1990s to well below 150 million ounces in 2009.
Another anchor on silver prices, which tend to take direction from the waxing and waning gold price, is that a lot of silver used in a range of applications – like photographic film, electronics and batteries — tends to be recycled, bringing back about 400 million ounces a year of the metal to the market.
But the days of huge recycling could be drawing to an end, Cross said, pointing to a host of technological advances needing silver, including wound care, food hygiene and water, wood preservatives, textiles, solar panels and radio frequency identification tags.
“These new end uses for silver are set to pick up the demand slack left by the shrinking photographic industry,” she said. “But, unlike photographic film, these end users do not generate vast amounts of recycled metal. In general… the metal is going to be taken off the market for good.”
Silver’s time has come, she said.
“The change is coming about as a result of silver’s unique properties as a biocide as well as is superior conductivity,” she said.
“The interesting thing is that many of the world’s worries and woes today are playing right into the hands of silver and this metal appears to be in the right place at the right time in a number of applications.”
Radio frequency identification tags, used in identity documents, passports and stock controls, are growing in use. China, for example is spending $6B to install these devices in identity documents for all its citizens and in transport tickets, she said.
London-based metals consultancy VM Group estimates use of these tags will grow to more than 30 billion by 2020 from around seven billion now. Each tag contains about 10 milligrams of silver on average, absorbing nine million ounces of silver from the 2.3 million ounces currently.
Solar panels and mirrors could absorb another 50 million ounces by 2020 compared to 18 million ounces now. Wood preservative coatings could account for up to 100 million ounces a year as chromate copper arsenic, the existing wood preservative is phased out.
There were no estimates of the amount of silver that could be used in plasters and bandages, which use silver for its anti-bacterial properties. These properties also feed into the clothing and textile sector where body odors and bacteria are eliminated.
Silver is also used in water purification devices and to store food. It could take up around 95 million oz by 2020.
“Superimpose this good news on the tonnages of silver that have gone into the ETFs (silver-backed exchange-traded funds) and you have an underlying strength within this market to justify its current price strength,” Cross said.
The gold:silver ratio is expected to narrow. At current prices you can buy 64.4 ounces of silver for the price of a single ounce of gold.
“The current market conditions indicate that gold has become overpriced and silver has become underpriced, suggesting there will be a shift in assets from gold to silver,” said Jeffrey Lewis, who edits Silver-coin-investor.com.
“Since 1970, the ratio of the number of ounces of silver you could buy with one ounce of gold has run as high as 80:1 and as low as 20:1, with a mean of 54:1. Today’s ratio is moderately higher than 54:1; in fact, the ratio is nearing 64:1, suggesting that there will be a correction in either the price of gold, or silver will advance to make up the deficit,” he said.
Posted in Silver Investing, The Silver Market | Leave a Comment »
US Mint Suspends Sale of 2009 Gold & Silver Eagles
Mary Beth at Tea Party silver
November 29, 2009
If, like me, you have been watching the spot price of gold and silver lately you would be seeing that your investments in silver have been growing. One of the first things I do every morning is check the spot prices… Naturally, this is something I need to keep on top of throughout the day so that TPS can keep our pricing structure current… but as a fellow silver investor and co-owner now of a gold mining operation, I have a vested interest in watching what is going on.
In the last week we’ve seen gold almost reach the $1200 mark… and silver came close to $19. The first thing that this triggers in my mind is the question: “Okay… What’s happening out there?” This, then prompts me to go digging for articles, research, commentary by the experts to tell me what has impacted the pricing spikes or drops (as the case may be). Much of what I discover in this process I bring to the TP Newsletter to keep YOU informed …
One of the things that happened this week is that the US Mint has suspended the sale of gold and silver American Eagles. Several people have called me to ask about this. But, before I go further though let me pontificate a little about the issue of numismatic values compared to investment values of precious metals, because this will have a bearing on understanding the rest of this article.
Numismatics, according to Wikipedia, is “is the study or collection of currency, including coins, tokens, paper money, and related objects.” So when we speak of ‘numismatic value’ we aren’t necessarily only talking about precious metals.
Numismatic values are driven by many factors besides the metal content itself. The following is a list of some of those factors:
- Year of production
- Design quality
- Condition of the coin/currency at the time of valuation (circulated, uncirculated, scratches, dents, dings, corrosion etc.)
- Minting errors
- Socio-political events
- Rarity
- Quality – proof or burnished
Any or all of these factors can drive up the cost /value of a coin/currency from a collector’s vantage point. Contrast this from an investor’s vantage point. An investor is looking to purchase a commodity of value at the lowest possible cost with the highest possible value to hold until it increases in value, or is able to be leveraged in some way to his/her advantage. In the case of precious metals as one such commodity, the numismatic issues listed above are of little consequence because
- They drive up the costs artificially and
- The value of the metal itself as a commodity is what is important.
Having said that, however, the investor market still holds room for personal preference as to design features and other meanings specific to investor preferences.
So let’s move on to discussing what’s going on with the US Mint. Keep in mind that the Gold and Silver Eagles are Legal Tender (howbeit greatly undervalued with a face value of $1 for silver and $50 for gold).1. As a government institution, the US Mint production of silver and gold products is dependent upon the annual allocation by the Treasury of precious metals purchased under their annual budget. This is a fixed, finite, amount (contrary to private mints or commercial entities that just purchase more when they run out).
In the last 2 years, 2008, & 2009, the US Treasury allocated LESS silver / gold than in previous years to their Silver Eagles program. This has several implications:
- Silver/Gold Eagles for these years will be rarer than in previous years.
- With current investment demand being higher due to the economic climate, there will be shortages.
- The US Mint sales currently top 25,000,000 for 2009.
- Because of the shortages, the short-term pricing will carry a higher premium (over spot). This is basic market economics.
2. In 2008, the US Mint also had to suspend sales of the gold & silver American Eagles. I had just begun investing in them in the fall of 2008… and I ran into this very issue myself last year. (Remember, the Treasury had cut back supply of metals in 2008 as well.)
3. Just because the US Mint has suspended sales does NOT mean that you cannot obtain these coins elsewhere from sellers who have had the foresight to stock up or vendors who are resellers for the US mint. But, bear in mind the following:
- Buyers will pay a higher premium
- Buyers will find they may have to wait extended periods of time for delivery after paying for their coins.
The US Mint may produce a few more of the 2009 Eagles yet before the close of the year. On the other hand, they may just be trying to regulate the rate at which they deplete the remaining supply. Since we are approaching the end of 2009, this isn’t too alarming because 2010 is just around the corner; new allocations for the next year will be in place and they will begin minting the 2010 Silver and Gold American Eagles and the cycle begins again.
I do have a source of limited supply for circulated Silver American Eagles from time to time. These will have scratches or small dings, and perhaps need cleaning up if you want to get them in pristine shape… But the premiums are lower and they’re still Eagles if you’re a real American Eagles fan… If you’re interested, drop me a note and I’ll watch for the next stock available in these…
I do still have sources for obtaining Eagles after our current inventory is depleted; however, I, too, will be subject to these higher premiums; so if and when that time comes, I may need to decide not to carry them due to the price point we will have to charge for them. After all, my mindset is more of an investor than collector… and I will want to keep as much of the commodity on hand as possible and not waste precious resources on artificially inflated premiums. Having said that, if you still want Eagles, drop me a note or call, and I’ll be happy to see what I can do… generally speaking, however, know that there will probably be minimum order volumes imposed upon me by my vendors…generally, those are 500 or more coins.
Things to Come for Tea Party Silver
On another note… I’ve shared with you in the past that we will be minting a new 1 Troy oz, .999 fine silver divisible bar (similar to the Stagecoach bars we now carry) … we are still in waiting mode on this, but I will give you a sneak preview of the artwork… I had hoped these would be ready for Christmas, but it doesn’t look like we’re going to make production in time. I will definitely be sending out a note when they come off the production line. Our first run will be in silver; later in the year after we get supply of gold running from the mine, we intend to produce these in 1 oz gold as well.This design is obviously inspired by our Alaska mining venture, but also takes its text from Zechariah 13:9 in Scripture.
“This third I will bring into the fire; I will refine them like silver and test them like gold. They will call on my name and I will answer them; I will say, ‘They are my people,’ and they will say, ‘The LORD is our God.’”
We felt this text brings together the concept of how adversity distills character as well as references the challenges we are all facing in these turbulent times, which many believe to be ‘last days’ scripture talks about. We also felt that it instills hope in what the future holds and a sense of direction that we need to be taking as individuals and as a country.
Contact us at silver@teapartysilver.org
888-203-2232 x 1
Posted in Silver Investing, The Silver Market | Leave a Comment »
